Dan Schwartz

The season is impending, but a one man manual approach to player projections is an arduous process. In any case, I need to put something ranking-related up so below you’ll find my top 105 players and their associated 5×5 stats plus quick notes. For extended stats or peripherals including BIP data, discipline ratios, power scores, etc. on specific players, send us a request.

Most of the pitcher projections and recently adjusted hitter projections are via Rotochamp composite projections. I tend to identify (not necessarily match) most with Rotochamp & Ron Shandler’s/Baseball HQ’s Baseball Forecaster.

So without further ado:

Proj Sys

Rnk

Player

Pos

AB

AVG

HR

SB

R

RBI

IP

W

ERA

WHIP

K

SV

Rotobanter

1

Cabrera, Miguel

3b

580

0.323

35

2

110

127

Rotobanter

2

Ryan Braun

of

579

0.314

34

24

107

111

Rotobanter

3

Trout, Mike

of

598

0.294

25

40

120

85

Rotobanter

4

Cano, Robinson

2b

608

0.304

27

4

95

95

Rotobanter

5

Kershaw, Clayton

sp

229

17

2.83

1.1

234

0

Rotobanter

6

McCutchen, Andrew

of

581

0.287

26

23

99

89

Rotobanter

7

Votto, Joey

1b

506

0.315

25

6

95

100

Rotobanter

8

Kemp, Matt

of

528

0.291

27

18

92

92

Rotobanter

9

Strasburg, Stephen

sp

195

17

2.83

1.14

232

0

Rotobanter

10

Pujols, Albert

1b

568

0.283

32

7

95

105

Rotobanter

11

Fielder, Prince

1b

551

0.298

30

1

90

110

Rotobanter

12

Verlander, Justin

sp

235

18

3.26

1.13

233

0

Rotobanter

13

Stanton, Giancarlo

of

495

0.270

41

6

89

99

Rotobanter

14

Posey, Buster

c;1b

516

0.304

21

2

79

98

Rotobanter

15

Gonzalez, Carlos

of

516

0.296

21

20

90

90

Rotobanter

16

Cespedes, Yoenis

of

528

0.287

26

19

84

94

Rotobanter

17

Beltre, Adrian

3b

558

0.298

30

1

82

94

Rotobanter

18

Price, David

sp

216

17

2.97

1.08

208

0

Rotobanter

19

Reyes, Jose

ss

606

0.291

10

34

100

60

Rotobanter

20

Jones, Adam

of

623

0.282

28

14

95

85

Rotobanter

21

Zimmerman, Ryan

3b

564

0.284

25

4

94

98

Rotobanter

22

Longoria, Evan

3b

525

0.281

30

4

82

98

Rotobanter

23

Bautista, Jose

of

524

0.257

37

7

96

98

Rotobanter

24

Harper, Bryce

of

574

0.275

27

21

88

84

Rotobanter

25

Castro, Starlin

ss

625

0.293

16

22

85

70

Rotobanter

26

Heyward, Jason

of

567

0.274

28

17

94

82

Rotobanter

27

Lee, Cliff

sp

218

15

3.09

1.05

200

0

Rotobanter

28

Upton, Justin

of

560

0.281

22

17

94

86

Rotobanter

29

Encarnacion, Edwin

1b

527

0.271

32

8

86

100

Rotobanter

30

Hernandez, Felix

sp

232

14

3.14

1.18

219

0

Rotobanter

31

Goldschmidt, Paul

1b

552

0.278

28

13

84

94

Rotobanter

32

Bumgarner, Madison

sp

208

15

2.94

1.17

193

0

Rotobanter

33

Gonzalez, Adrian

1b

596

0.296

24

1

85

105

Rotobanter

34

Hamels, Cole

sp

214

15

3.33

1.15

198

0

Rotobanter

35

Ramirez, Hanley

ss;3b

567

0.265

22

20

89

76

Rotobanter

36

Rizzo, Anthony

1b

589

0.276

28

5

84

94

Rotobanter

37

Bruce, Jay

of

556

0.255

34

8

90

100

Rotobanter

38

Tulowitzki, Troy

ss

459

0.294

20

6

80

84

Rotobanter

39

Craig, Allen

1b;of

554

0.296

25

2

83

97

Rotobanter

40

Butler, Billy

1b

595

0.296

24

2

78

104

Rotobanter

41

Holliday, Matt

of

557

0.289

23

4

90

95

Rotobanter

42

Gonzalez, Gio

sp

197

17

3.37

1.26

196

0

Rotobanter

43

Jackson, Austin

of

606

0.284

17

20

108

66

Rotobanter

44

Pedroia, Dustin

2b

577

0.288

14

20

92

72

Rotobanter

45

Ramirez, Aramis

3b

544

0.286

23

4

80

95

Rotobanter

46

Freeman, Freddie

1b

579

0.278

27

2

89

99

Rotobanter

47

Hill, Aaron

2b

585

0.273

22

12

88

78

Rotobanter

48

Hamilton, Josh

of

523

0.277

25

7

80

95

Rotochamp

49

Wright, David

3b

551

0.278

20

15

84

84

Rotobanter

50

Upton, B.J.

of

568

0.250

25

28

78

84

Rotobanter

51

Ellsbury, Jacoby

of

600

0.285

12

31

89

59

Rotobanter

52

Rios, Alex

of

591

0.278

20

18

79

79

Rotobanter

53

Altuve, Jose

2b

607

0.290

10

30

85

50

Rotobanter

54

Weaver, Jered

sp

198

17

3.37

1.22

153

0

Rotobanter

55

Cain, Matt

sp

216

15

3.33

1.23

175

0

Rotochamp

56

Craig Kimbrel

rp

66

4

1.77

0.97

110

32

Rotobanter

57

Gordon, Alex

of

625

0.288

17

9

93

77

Rotobanter

58

Kipnis, Jason

2b

605

0.261

16

25

87

73

Rotobanter

59

Greinke, Zack

sp

178

14

3.25

1.19

167

0

Rotobanter

60

Sabathia, CC

sp

195

14

3.46

1.23

185

0

Rotochamp

61

Halladay, Roy

sp

185

13

3.26

1.12

160

0

Rotobanter

62

Sale, Chris

sp

198

13

3.54

1.2

194

0

Rotobanter

63

Desmond, Ian

ss

577

0.275

18

18

73

70

Rotobanter

64

Phillips, Brandon

2b

574

0.276

16

15

85

75

Rotobanter

65

Zobrist, Ben

2b;ss;of

554

0.262

18

14

87

78

Rotobanter

66

Kinsler, Ian

2b

607

0.254

17

21

100

68

Rotochamp

67

Medlen, Kris

sp

175

13

3.24

1.14

147

0

Rotochamp

68

Wainwright, Adam

sp

185

13

3.31

1.19

166

0

Rotobanter

69

Choo, Shin-Soo

of

572

0.274

17

17

90

70

Rotochamp

70

Latos, Matt

sp

190

13

3.55

1.17

175

0

Rotobanter

71

Joe Mauer

c

501

0.305

8

4

79

71

Rotochamp

72

Darvish, Yu

sp

193

14

3.54

1.27

213

0

Rotobanter

73

Andrus, Elvis

ss

619

0.284

5

26

85

58

Rotochamp

74

Cueto, Johnny

sp

186

13

3.44

1.2

144

0

Rotochamp

75

Gallardo, Yovani

sp

201

13

3.72

1.26

203

0

Rotobanter

76

Trumbo, Mark

1b;of

543

0.258

31

3

68

94

Rotochamp

77

Zimmerman, Jordan

sp

187

12

3.56

1.18

148

0

Rotochamp

78

Chapman, Aroldis

sp/rp

138

10

3.39

1.25

182

0

Rotobanter

79

Sandoval, Pablo

3b

510

0.288

20

2

70

80

Rotobanter

80

Jennings, Desmond

of

545

0.256

16

33

92

52

Rotochamp

81

Kennedy, Ian

sp

199

13

3.75

1.22

176

0

Rotobanter

82

Prado, Martin

3b;of

589

0.295

11

9

84

67

Rotobanter

83

Bourn, Michael

of

617

0.269

4

43

90

50

Rotobanter

84

Cabrera, Asdrubal

ss

561

0.272

16

11

79

73

Rotobanter

85

Martinez, Victor

c;u

519

0.294

12

0

66

80

Rotochamp

86

Headley, Chase

3b

549

0.268

18

14

76

78

Rotochamp

87

Scherzer, Max

sp

187

13

3.75

1.28

194

0

Rotobanter

88

Aoki, Norichika

of

566

0.286

10

26

82

52

Rotochamp

89

De Aza, Alejandro

of

551

0.278

11

26

84

56

Rotobanter

90

Ike Davis

1b

556

0.252

32

2

72

92

Rotobanter

91

Hosmer, Eric

1b

553

0.268

19

13

77

80

Rotochamp

92

Jonathan Papelbon

rp

62

4

2.61

1.06

77

32

Rotochamp

93

Lincecum, Tim

sp

182

12

3.61

1.29

186

0

Rotochamp

94

Cuddyer, Michael

1b;of

485

0.282

20

8

70

74

Rotobanter

95

Rutledge, Josh

ss;2b

543

0.268

17

14

78

62

Rotochamp

96

Dickey, RA

sp

204

14

3.75

1.25

158

0

Rotobanter

97

Rosario, Wilin

c

439

0.260

28

3

60

70

Rotobanter

98

Cabrera, Melky

of

585

0.283

13

13

80

70

Rotochamp

99

Shields, James

sp

216

13

3.88

1.25

188

0

Rotobanter

100

Rollins, Jimmy

ss

561

0.250

15

23

89

57

Rotochamp

101

Sergio Romo

rp

56

3

2.25

0.95

66

30

Rotobanter

102

Wieters, Matt

c

507

0.256

23

1

70

80

Rotobanter

103

Molina, Yadier

c

474

0.292

13

5

56

70

Rotobanter

104

Santana, Carlos

c;1b

509

0.253

22

3

73

78

Rotochamp

105

Jason Motte

rp

65

4

2.77

1.06

71

33

 

Cabrera, Miguel

Additions of Hunter & Martinez should keep Runs Produced sky high

Ryan Braun

#1 if you don’t consider position scarcity

Trout, Mike

What will 20 more lb do? For me, it means gout, which at least rhymes with Trout

Cano, Robinson

Don’t be too concerned with L/R splits. That’s nothing new. Be concerned in ’14 if he’s somehow not a NYY. Counting stats could be effected by lack of supporting cast

Kershaw, Clayton

Elite skills overall; consistently low BABIP; decreasing Ct%; P park factors; .210, .200 & .197 BAA in low, medium & high leverage. Ignoring hip concern for now

McCutchen, Andrew

He could hit less HR, but he could have a better Avg. and SB total than this yielding similar value

Votto, Joey

If only he was walked less, we would see more BIP (balls in play), which means more counting stats. In any case, he’s elite

Kemp, Matt

Projecting less AB than most, otherwise he’s a good bet for 35/25

Strasburg, Stephen

Better skills (K/BB; GB/FB; Ct%) than Kershaw &Verlander. J Zimm pitched 195 IP LY. Expect close to the same. 220 IP & health and he’s #1 SP w/ more W & K

Pujols, Albert

Trends started in ’11 and not ’12. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt w/ a solid supporting cast

Fielder, Prince

If trend holds true we could see 30+ hr and a .310+ avg again. I’m comfortable here with 30/.300

Verlander, Justin

Stanton, Giancarlo

Irrational Rotobanter thought of trading him to St. Louis – up the counting stats and we have our new #4 (If Beltran/Holliday gets hurt, why not an offer of Jay,  Adams + 2 SP prospects for Stanton and a call-up of Tavares

Posey, Buster

W/ position scarcity in mind he’s a top 15 hitter – w/out he’s outside top 30. Jump if you’re in a 2-catcher league

Gonzalez, Carlos

If he drops, I’ll draft him and start him only against righties in Colorado.

Cespedes, Yoenis

25/20 w/ a better avg puts him ahead of Heyward, Harper & Upton at least for ’13

Beltre, Adrian

Price, David

Top 10 GB/FB LY as it relates to draftable SP. Expect some regression w/ BIP data, but should post sub 3.10 era, sub 1.15 whip, 200+ K at 27

Reyes, Jose

I am jealous Blue Jay fans get to chant Jose Jose Jose 2x in 1 lineup

Jones, Adam

RBI’s away from breaking into the top 15

Zimmerman, Ryan

Even before Headley’s injury, you shouldn’t have debated between him and Zimmerman. You should math debate over him or Longoria.

Longoria, Evan

Projecting 11th best power score in baseball. W/out protection behind him, we can see a big jump in BB% affecting his counting stats. Injury asterisk

Bautista, Jose

If he gains 3b elig he’ll jump to #11. Ton more to drive in

Harper, Bryce

Don’t draft him in rnd 1 in re-draft leagues. Jump late round 2-on

Castro, Starlin

Austin Jackson-like trends. Could rank higher but I like others ’13 ceilings more e.g. Harper, Hamilton, Heyward

Heyward, Jason

Draft him for 90/30/90 potential and not SB/Avg

Lee, Cliff

Posted BEST K/BB in baseball LY. As a NYM Mets fan, I loved his win total, but as a FB contributor, I fully expect a W total closer to 15

Upton, Justin

Don’t stress over park factors here. You have enough to stress over if you draft him. Which Justin Upton will you get? They’re brothers…They’re happy and they know it and they’re…

Encarnacion, Edwin

Identical year to ’10 w/ more PA and slight HR/FB jump. This line goes w/ his ’10 #’s. Solid production with even more RBI potential

Hernandez, Felix

Should be top 15 K/BB, top 20 GB/FB, top 30 in ct%, but could see small regressions in K/BB (Velocity dip) & HR/FB (fences in & regressions to the mean)

Goldschmidt, Paul

I won’t get all Bill James, but let’s just say I like him. I’d also like his lineup spot confirmed before I would also like him batting 3rd or 4th

Bumgarner, Madison

He’ll only be 23, which bodes well for skill increase across the board. Chances are HR/FB regresses, K/BB^ & GB/FB^ again (3 yr trend). I’m associating sleeper status to him and thought about ranking him higher than Lee & Felix

Gonzalez, Adrian

Don’t be surprised by another sub 20 HR total

Hamels, Cole

Top 10 K/BB. Top 10 ct%. Nasty Changeup

Ramirez, Hanley

According to Rotochamps, he’s batting first. I know they have better 3-4 hitters, but c’mon Dee

Rizzo, Anthony

Only 2 downsides now that he has more exp under his belt: he’s only 23 and could have what I call a shit-show surrounding him

Bruce, Jay

IMO he supports you in every category other than Avg so don’t let him slide further

Tulowitzki, Troy

Add 100 AB and he’s top 8 material

Craig, Allen

Wrench. Don’t go overboard – especially not in keeper leagues. Don’t expect 30 HR either w/ FB% trend

Butler, Billy

HR/FB: 11.9>8.4>10.4…19.9% (don’t expect 30 hr or 25 for that matter)

Holliday, Matt

Gonzalez, Gio

His best skill LY was his GB/FB and relatively lucky HR/FB (2nd best in baseball after Medlen w > 100+ IP). Other than WHIP, he’s elite across the board

Jackson, Austin

Better trend than skinny pants

Pedroia, Dustin

I stay away from the cologne, but not from him. If Sandoval misses time, 3b gets thin quick

Ramirez, Aramis

I won’t wear the cologne, but I’ll certainly draft him if he falls much lower

Freeman, Freddie

Ct%/discipline & BABIP data won’t allow .290+ Avg, but LD should switch with FB which can jump his HR total up to 30

Hill, Aaron

Solid spring, solid ct%; GB/FB should regress but at 2b he’s elite

Hamilton, Josh

Natural HR/FB regression exacerbated by park factor and FB% regression. Park Factor,GB% jump, O-swing trend and drop in Ct% should regress avg. as well.

Wright, David

Don’t be surprised if he outputs 15 hr and adds to his 2b total instead (ESPN HR Tracker nightmare). Ranking recently dropped w/ potential inj. concern

Upton, B.J.

Counting Stats Darling

Ellsbury, Jacoby

I pulled 600 AB out of a hat. This assumes a 7% HR/FB – not his 2011 16.7%

Rios, Alex

Puts the Ball in play – doesn’t bode well for his bb/k ratio, but does for his counting stats. Should approach 20/20 again

Altuve, Jose

Weaver, Jered

Cain, Matt

Craig Kimbrel

Keep finding myself drafting him in Mocks. Hard to draft relievers early, but don’t let this one slip. If elite options are off the board, then go with this elite option and don’t worry about closers for the rest of the draft

Gordon, Alex

See David Wright, but the other way. Jump to 20 HR is possible.

Kipnis, Jason

Avg keeping him from being elite. Perfect example of regression to the means – glorious 1st half followed by abysmal 2nd half

Greinke, Zack

Sounds like he’ll only miss a start, but don’t jump much higher – LAA better Park Factors than LAD (obv. NL transition should help)

Sabathia, CC

Used to draft him first ever year in my death pool for some reason. He’s big, 32 and has been an IP monster – just stating the obvious

Halladay, Roy

Concerning spring  puts this line in ?

Sale, Chris

Sales Slider

Desmond, Ian

Average his last 2 years and you basically get this line. Peripherally speaking, we should get slightly better

Phillips, Brandon

18 HR 3 years straight. He’s 32 now so you should expect a small dip in counting stats

Zobrist, Ben

Jump up his ranking in OBP leagues, but he’s really not much more valuable than this

Kinsler, Ian

More valuable if you displace AVG with OBP

Medlen, Kris

Should see more like a 1.4 GB/FB vs. the 1.9 GB/FB we saw LY in addition to a Ct% regression

Wainwright, Adam

I still picture Beltran’s bat not leaving his shoulders

Choo, Shin-Soo

Gahbleshyou

Latos, Matt

2 Slow First Halves in row now. If he starts off slow again, buy-low.

Joe Mauer

I figured I’d output at least 10 HR. Obviously has the Ct% to do so, but sub 25% FB two years straight & at 30 his GB/FB is not likely to reverse. HR & FB Avg. Distance would play well elsewhere but in Target Fielder a < 10% HR/FB again is likely

Darvish, Yu

Has the BIP data to have success in Texas, which could be even better next year with another U.S. year under his belt at age 26. This, ct% & k% should keep ERA under 3.85 & 1.28

Andrus, Elvis

Cueto, Johnny

Gallardo, Yovani

Trumbo, Mark

BA aside, he’ll have a ton to drive in. Two 290 ft. avg. HR & FB distances in a row and at 27, HR/FB ratio could hover at 20% guaranteeing 30 hr w/ 40% of BIP being FB

Zimmerman, Jordan

W/ more FB come more HR and regressed ERA as expected ERA formulas (SIERA, FIP/xFIP) suggest, but sub 3.5 ERA & 1.20 WHIP possible + potential for up to 15 W

Chapman, Aroldis

Elite Closer who wants to close. Reds seemed committed to starting him with other CL options

Sandoval, Pablo

I don’t want Prado just for his Avg, Freese for his HR/FB ratio, Middlebrooks 1st full season or Alvarez’s woeful Avg so if Kung Fu Panda is still around here, go for it

Jennings, Desmond

Potential for 15/40. If he’s much higher on other lists, it’s because they’re associating less weight to Avg., which I am okay with

Kennedy, Ian

Prado, Martin

Don’t count on the HR/SB counting stats, but if you’re okay in those departments, you can draft him for the Avg, R &RBI

Bourn, Michael

Cabrera, Asdrubal

Rough July & August killed another 2011-like campaign. Batting second will hurt RBI opps but we could see R total closer to 90 with Kipnis, Swisher & Santana behind. There’s value here w/ his position scarcity

Martinez, Victor

Think 2010 Red Sox Victor Martinez without the HR Total

Headley, Chase

HR/FB out of whack LY, but came with huge Avg. Distance jump. May miss all of April

Scherzer, Max

Awesome M2M growth. GB% dropped so positive regression there and ct% should offset the K/BB regression. Peripherals should ensure ERA under 3.9 & WHIP under 1.29

Aoki, Norichika

If you don’t land Jennings you can go with the next two guys and get similar value bc of the better Avg

De Aza, Alejandro

Besides, you can start a SB trend and have others over-draft on speed like you would be at this point

Ike Davis

21st farthest HR & FB avg. dist in ’12. Should approach 20% HR/FB again at 25

Hosmer, Eric

I can’t project more than 20 HR even though he had 19 in ’11, but he’s only 23 and should put more FB in the air. HR/FB can easily jump back to 13.5% which means 20+ HR if he can turn some of his despicable GB quantity to FB

Jonathan Papelbon

Lincecum, Tim

Not too comfortable with this projection – I’d prefer Dickey or Shields below if I didn’t draft one of the above. I’ll wait a few more rounds than go with a few SP in a row

Cuddyer, Michael

He’ll continue to output value around here if he can stay healthy

Rutledge, Josh

While I can’t associate an avg. closer to .280, I’ll take 15/15 from a 2b/ss, but if you’re okay in the avg. department, I’d prefer Rollins & Weeks here

Dickey, RA

I have a huge dickey post.

Rosario, Wilin

5th farthest HR/FB avg. dist and in Colorado – what’s not to like. Ramon won’t steal enough AB from him to affect his value and could be traded as a veteran to a contender

Cabrera, Melky

Runs produced sandwich

Shields, James

Rollins, Jimmy

If we double H1 he would have hit 16 HR. A 2nd Half rampage gave him 23 LY

Sergio Romo

Wieters, Matt

Small FB drop, small HR/FB jump. Consistent BIP hit expectancy. Assume a very similar line

Molina, Yadier

Along with Mauer, he’ll most likely go too early – solid contributor across the board for a catcher, but don’t over do it

Santana, Carlos

Biggest upside if he can reverse GB/FB trend at 27. In 2 catcher leagues, I’d naturally jump this group up

Jason Motte

 

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*

HTML tags are not allowed.

Learn to Develop Your Own Projections with The
Projecting X

Other Great Sites

Player News
Perpetual Winter Meeting
ADP & Mock Drafts

Archives