Dan Schwartz

Ensure you check out the First and Second Prospect/2nd Year Impact posts. SB-illy Hamilton, Kolten Wong, Matt Adams, Oscar Taveras and George Springer are highlighted in the first and Kole Calhoun has the 2nd post all to himself. I ranked him #2 overall if all Prospects and Impact 2nd year players played in a full 160 games…my first ‘2014 ballsy forecast.’

 

In this (Part III) post, we’ll focus on Oswaldo Arcia and Avisail Garcia. Chances are, in at least one league I own both and name my team the Arcia & Garcia show. But if you had to choose?…

 

You can find their actual projected value in the initial prospect impact post or in the left toolbar prospect impact page:

Avisail Garcia: 120G/492PA/464AB – .275-14HR-9SB-62R-63RBI ($6.82)

Oswaldo Arcia: 127G/527PA/477AB – .262BA-23HR-2SB-56R-70RBI ($5.68)

 

If they were to play in 160 Games (again, see explanation on the small differential (xBABIP/AVG) here):

Avisail Garcia: 160G/656PA/621AB – .275-19HR-12SB-82R-84RBI ($18.85)

Oswaldo Arcia: 160G/664PA/604AB – .262-29HR-2SB-70R-88RBI ($14.87)

 

PA/AB Projection:
The PA rate is based on their projected PA/G. I think they should both exceed my projected PA/AB totals, but I reside on the side of caution. Both have already had run-ins with the outfield wall (knee/Arcia; potential concussion/Garcia) and Arcia also experienced a wrist issue.

 

Projected Discipline:

Oswaldo:

26-27% K-rate

7-7.5% BB-rate

= 70.3% Contact Rate

 

Avisail:

22-23% K-rate

3.9-4.5% BB-rate

= 76-77% Contact Rate

 

Initially, we’d have to lead toward Avisail rather heavily, but here is their Balls in Play Data:

Oswaldo:

GB: 40.2%

FB: 41.8%

LD: 18%

HR/FB: 16.23%

IFFB: 6%

IFH: 7.2%

xBABIP: .319

 

Avisail:

GB: 54.3%

FB: 27%

LD: 18.8%

HR/FB: 14.6%

IFFB: 6.2%

IFH: 6.5%

xBABIP: .332

 

Accounting for the contact rate and expected BABIP, we would still be leaning toward Avisail. He should register 15 points on Arcia’s BA.

 

ISO/Power:

Keeping Arcia on the same page as Avisail regarding overall value – is his raw power. Arcia’s HR and Flyball Average Distance was 14th overall at 302.5 feet. Both Garcia and Arcia will only be 23 next year leading to a few more years of max power/distance. I think Arcia has a real shot at 25 homers in his projected playing time and might wind up with as much or more to drive in than Garcia. I also think Arcia’s raw power and HR/FB ratio could keep his BABIP in the .330-340 range knocking his projected avg. to .2708.

 

Avisail’s HR total on the other hand will be limited by his GB/FB ratio. I’m projecting it to be in the top 20 worst rates for players worth drafting – after speedier guys like Yelich, Revere, Segura, Aoki (Mauer and Freese as 2 notables with bad GB/FB ratios and not enough speed to make up for it).

 

Conclusion:

All-in-all, I’d consider them two rather close. It depends what I’m looking for at that time when I approach their names. After all, you will find them in the same positional tier, a buck+ apart. If you want a 15HR/10SB candidate (up to 19HR/14SB) then you’re going with Avisail. If you want 25+ HR potential, you’re going Arcia.

 

Both are in the same tier as Christian Yelich, Junior Lake and George Springer. I’d personally go Arcia for the power potential. After all, there are still SB threats…how many big-time OF power threats are left at this point. Accoring to my tiers: Colby Rasmus (25SB), Josh Reddick (20HR), Dayan Viciedo (20HR), and I wouldn’t want to own the BA’s of Reddick or Rasmus.

 

 

2 comments on “2014 Prospect Impact Cont’d: The Arcia & Garcia Show

  1. Great analysis. In a points league, walks same as single, who would you prefer to own for the period 2014-2018? I lean towards Avsail, higher ceiling, better park. In standard roto its Garcia, no question for me. The bb rate is concerning and I go back and forth in my points dynasty league. I’m curious your thoughts. Thanks, Eric

    • Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

      Thanks. Good Q. I just think Arcia has so much more power potential, I’d go Arcia every time, but you’re right in that Avisail should outhit Arcia year-in-year-out…consistently crazy high babips throughout milb career. I believe wOBA is a decent interpretation of value for points leagues, no? In that case, i still lean toward Arcia for power-potential.

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