Dan Schwartz

Here’s the top 75+ Starting Pitchers for 2014 as I currently have them. The categorical values are not fully in context yet, because the standard deviations and means were only taken from this group of starters. This will change as we have a larger more significant sample. So the z-score sum & associated rankings used at this point should be taken with less salt than last time:

If you want the full list with the games started & innings pitchers as well as categorical z-scores, full ball in play mix, LOB%, SwStr% and Z-ct% and their expected ERA’s such as the classic xERA formula, xFIP & SIERA, then send me a request here. In the coming days, i’ll post on the approach including park factors, and other important considerations that lead to the surface ERA like LOB%, SwStr%, IFFB%, etc. etc. I left some bubble-guys for you depending on health/GS totals i.e. Beachy, Luebke & Halladay:

Rnk

Player

GS

IP

Wins

ERA

WHIP

K

K/9

BB/9

K/BB

GB/FB

HR/FB

BABIP

1

Clayton Kershaw

32

229

14

2.68

1.018

227

8.9

2.1

4.3

1.4

0.065

0.282

2

Max Scherzer

32

213

16

3.20

1.088

235

9.9

2.4

4.1

0.8

0.096

0.287

3

Adam Wainwright

32

224

17

3.30

1.168

196

7.9

1.9

4.3

1.8

0.090

0.315

4

Chris Sale

30

214

13

3.16

1.132

227

9.5

2.0

4.8

1.5

0.120

0.309

5

Cliff Lee

31

222

13

3.35

1.084

211

8.6

1.4

6.2

1.3

0.118

0.297

6

Yu Darvish

32

210

14

3.39

1.171

244

10.4

3.3

3.1

1.2

0.128

0.296

7

Madison Bumgarner

30

195

13

3.14

1.119

188

8.7

2.6

3.3

1.3

0.080

0.287

8

Felix Hernandez

30

203

13

3.28

1.140

196

8.7

2.2

4.0

1.8

0.098

0.300

9

Stephen Strasburg

27

167

13

3.16

1.116

176

9.5

2.7

3.5

1.7

0.110

0.293

10

David Price

30

206

14

3.40

1.152

179

7.8

2.2

3.6

1.3

0.092

0.297

11

Cole Hamels

31

208

13

3.39

1.169

190

8.2

2.1

3.9

1.1

0.099

0.293

12

Justin Verlander

32

203

15

3.53

1.218

194

8.6

2.9

3.0

1.0

0.084

0.295

13

Alex Cobb

31

202

13

3.38

1.183

186

8.3

2.8

3.0

2.4

0.138

0.294

14

Jose Fernandez

28

175

13

3.33

1.195

188

9.7

3.2

3.0

1.3

0.080

0.311

15

Michael Wacha

30

197

13

3.44

1.168

174

7.9

2.6

3.0

1.3

0.085

0.293

16

Anibal Sanchez

29

182

14

3.44

1.230

182

9.0

2.8

3.2

1.4

0.088

0.298

17

Jordan Zimmerman

32

213

15

3.66

1.200

162

6.8

1.7

3.9

1.4

0.098

0.303

18

Zack Greinke

29

183

14

3.47

1.204

161

7.9

2.3

3.4

1.5

0.090

0.311

19

Danny Salazar

28

166

12

3.38

1.186

181

9.8

2.8

3.5

0.9

0.108

0.298

20

Gio Gonzalez

32

196

14

3.65

1.259

193

8.9

3.4

2.6

1.4

0.097

0.291

21

Matt Latos

30

193

14

3.53

1.241

171

8.0

2.6

3.1

1.3

0.085

0.305

22

Hyun-Jin Ryu

30

195

13

3.47

1.200

154

7.1

2.3

3.1

1.6

0.090

0.295

23

Mike Minor

31

194

13

3.71

1.183

170

7.9

2.5

3.2

0.8

0.090

0.290

24

Homer Bailey

32

208

14

3.67

1.246

179

7.8

2.4

3.3

1.3

0.113

0.301

25

Gerrit Cole

30

190

13

3.47

1.239

167

7.9

2.7

3.0

1.8

0.083

0.310

26

Matt Cain

30

188

14

3.79

1.185

155

7.4

2.6

2.9

0.9

0.110

0.271

27

Tony Cingrani

25

149

12

3.43

1.197

164

9.9

3.6

2.8

0.9

0.100

0.297

28

Patrick Corbin

32

209

13

3.68

1.230

177

7.6

2.4

3.2

1.5

0.100

0.303

29

James Shields

32

215

14

3.83

1.248

181

7.6

2.6

2.9

1.2

0.098

0.295

30

Shelby Miller

29

172

14

3.69

1.259

165

8.7

3.1

2.8

0.9

0.105

0.291

31

Kris Medlen

31

202

13

3.70

1.220

163

7.3

2.2

3.3

1.4

0.108

0.284

32

Julio Teheran

31

194

12

3.69

1.223

174

8.1

2.2

3.6

0.9

0.110

0.296

33

Sonny Gray

30

190

12

3.54

1.259

169

8.0

3.0

2.7

1.9

0.090

0.301

34

Hisashi Iwakuma

30

193

13

3.76

1.214

152

7.1

2.3

3.1

1.4

0.130

0.289

35

Matt Moore

28

160

14

3.59

1.301

154

8.7

4.3

2.0

1.0

0.078

0.275

36

Doug Fister

32

208

14

3.79

1.261

158

6.8

2.0

3.4

2.0

0.105

0.305

37

Corey Kluber

28

174

13

3.70

1.272

167

8.6

2.5

3.5

1.5

0.130

0.302

38

Dan Straily

32

184

12

3.64

1.241

158

7.7

3.1

2.5

0.9

0.082

0.288

39

Jered Weaver

28

177

14

3.80

1.231

135

6.9

2.3

3.0

0.7

0.083

0.290

40

Lance Lynn

32

195

12

3.68

1.292

186

8.6

3.3

2.6

1.3

0.084

0.303

41

Derek Holland

33

213

12

3.83

1.268

192

8.1

2.7

3.0

1.2

0.088

0.305

42

Rick Porcello

31

186

13

3.67

1.274

152

7.3

2.2

3.3

2.4

0.128

0.308

43

AJ Griffin

28

175

12

3.88

1.181

142

7.3

2.4

3.1

0.8

0.123

0.273

44

AJ Burnett

28

175

12

3.63

1.279

156

8.0

3.4

2.4

2.1

0.120

0.279

45

Ivan Nova

32

205

12

3.72

1.303

179

7.9

2.9

2.7

2.0

0.083

0.312

46

Andrew Cashner

29

185

10

3.44

1.244

153

7.5

2.8

2.7

1.9

0.084

0.287

47

Jon Lester

33

211

14

3.98

1.308

175

7.5

3.0

2.5

1.2

0.112

0.301

48

Justin Masterson

30

196

13

3.78

1.296

160

7.4

3.5

2.1

2.2

0.109

0.282

49

Dan Haren

30

171

12

4.00

1.209

150

7.9

1.8

4.4

0.8

0.133

0.292

50

Hiroki Kuroda

32

200

12

3.90

1.227

148

6.7

2.1

3.2

1.5

0.120

0.292

51

Tim Lincecum

32

197

12

3.91

1.309

185

8.5

3.5

2.4

1.4

0.134

0.285

52

Marco Estrada

25

153

10

3.73

1.196

144

8.4

2.3

3.6

0.8

0.122

0.277

53

Alex Wood

26

151

11

3.58

1.281

144

8.6

3.2

2.7

1.8

0.100

0.293

54

Jose Quintana

31

190

11

3.77

1.262

156

7.4

2.6

2.8

1.3

0.100

0.308

55

Bartolo Colon

30

190

13

3.94

1.214

116

5.5

1.6

3.5

1.0

0.093

0.289

56

Francisco Liriano

25

154

11

3.67

1.295

150

8.8

3.7

2.4

1.6

0.105

0.294

57

Jeff Samardzija

30

194

11

3.88

1.320

189

8.8

3.3

2.6

1.5

0.139

0.294

58

Johnny Cueto

25

150

11

3.73

1.216

124

7.5

2.4

3.2

1.7

0.120

0.302

59

Tyson Ross

26

155

9

3.58

1.231

149

8.7

3.2

2.7

1.8

0.080

0.310

60

Ubaldo Jiminez

32

182

12

3.91

1.331

171

8.5

3.9

2.2

1.1

0.101

0.299

61

Jarrod Parker

29

181

12

3.87

1.258

131

6.5

2.8

2.3

1.2

0.088

0.298

62

Yovani Gallardo

32

195

12

3.92

1.333

177

8.2

3.2

2.5

1.8

0.123

0.315

63

Jake Peavy

27

168

12

4.09

1.233

138

7.4

2.3

3.2

0.7

0.110

0.293

64

Matt Garza

25

160

11

3.90

1.253

142

8.0

2.7

3.0

1.2

0.120

0.285

65

RA Dickey

33

215

13

4.19

1.286

167

7.0

3.0

2.4

1.0

0.131

0.287

66

Ricky Nolasco

31

188

12

3.92

1.290

141

6.8

2.2

3.1

1.3

0.093

0.298

67

CJ Wilson

32

203

13

4.03

1.356

173

7.7

3.7

2.1

1.3

0.098

0.301

68

Chris Archer

32

187

12

3.96

1.308

153

7.4

3.6

2.0

1.2

0.115

0.278

69

Dillon Gee

31

195

11

3.96

1.252

142

6.5

2.2

2.9

1.2

0.100

0.298

70

CC Sabathia

29

189

13

4.08

1.340

156

7.4

2.7

2.7

1.3

0.133

0.305

71

Taijuan Walker

27

151

10

3.80

1.292

146

8.7

3.7

2.4

1.0

0.082

0.297

72

Zack Wheeler

27

167

10

3.81

1.289

148

7.9

3.6

2.2

1.4

0.100

0.313

73

Jon Niese

26

159

10

3.74

1.286

127

7.2

2.7

2.7

1.7

0.090

0.307

74

Kevin Gausman

20

112

12

4.04

1.281

100

8.0

2.5

3.1

1.3

0.140

0.307

75

Tanner Roark

26

165

10

3.82

1.293

135

7.4

2.1

3.5

1.8

0.086

0.323

76

Clay Buccholz

22

146

11

3.90

1.290

109

6.7

3.1

2.2

1.4

0.092

0.301

77

Ervin Santana

32

203

11

4.26

1.279

155

6.9

2.8

2.4

1.2

0.138

0.287

78

Scott Kazmir

24

130

10

4.02

1.317

124

8.6

3.5

2.5

1.0

0.122

0.286

79

Brandon Beachy

15

91

8

3.87

1.246

77

7.6

2.9

2.6

1.0

0.117

0.276

80

Corey Luebke

15

86

6

3.78

1.256

70

7.3

3.1

2.4

1.2

0.091

0.287

81

Roy Halladay

20

112

8

4.54

1.385

90

7.2

3.8

1.9

1.0

0.150

0.294

2 comments on “2014 SP Rankings – Top 75+

  1. Really glad to see Gausman on the list. His prospect hype lost a bit of momentum after a rough start in 2013, but he peripherals look good and his “stuff” easily passes the eye test. I expect a very solid season; if he somehow gets traded to the NL (Cubs?), expect even better things. Strong K rate, low BB rate. If he can limit the HR, he could be very good very quickly.

    • Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

      Yeah and look at the IP total. He could certainly provide even more value. By full year 2 he should be a stud. Hr/fb and luck factors like lob% could still play a big role initially

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