Dan Schwartz

Here’s the top 100 Starting Pitchers for 2014 as I currently have them. The categorical values are not 100% in context yet, because the standard deviations and means were only taken from this group of starters. This will change as we have a larger more significant sample. So the z-score sum & associated rankings used at this point should be taken with almost no salt. You can find the means and SD’s utilized if you scroll to the right in the first tab (5×5).

Unlike my previous SP rankings, I embedded this file into the site for your review so that you can open the different tabs for most of their peripherals. The tabs are as follows: 5×5 Categories; command (K/BB) related statistics; balls in play mix and associated values; and finally all of their expected ERA’s. My ERA (RBERA) starts with Stephen Staude’s new expected ERA but then incorporates SwStr% and LOB%. While LOB% is fluky year to year, it’s a known formula. I then adjust their outputted LOB% by league average LOB% and each individual’s career average LOB% prior to incorporating it into my ERA equation. Here are the top 100+ SP’s and their 2014 Projections:

31 comments on “2014 SP Rankings – Top 100

  1. Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

    Need their “holy trinity” stats? Go to their ‘command’ and ‘BIP’ tabs for their K/9 (or K%), BB/9 (or BB%) and GB% (or GB/FB).

    Check out their xERA, xFIP, SIERA, BERA (different expected ERA outputs) in addition to my ERA in the xERA tab.

  2. Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

    FYI, the z-sums and exact order will change as add’l SP get added into the equation and the categorical means and standard deviations will change.

    • Joseph Pytleski on said:

      So, help fantasy owners out..it’s best to stay on 5×5 and go with their z-scores?

      • Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

        Yeah – 5×5 owners can simply stay in the first tab and look at the blue columns…but each category (no saves obviously) have their associated z-scores and the z-sum is how they are ranked. ERA and WHIP are rate statistics and are naturally weighed by IP.

  3. Bbboston on said:

    With Salazar, are you concerned about an unproven ability to turn the batting order three times or go past the sixth inning? In your mind, how impacted would his stats be if he wasn’t so limited on pitches last year?

    • Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

      bbboston. I’ll put up a whole post for you on Salazar. Keep an eye out today.

      • Bbboston on said:

        Awesome and THANKS! At the risk of being too pushy, another suggested topic: Drew Smyly. I think he’s an over-looked top 30 pitcher.

        • Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

          totally agree. thanks for the catch…i do have him in my sp’s and he will certainly be in the top 100 when he gets added. I’ll add him to my addition/revision list (same with Josmiel Pinto for catchers). Post coming soon.

        • Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

          The Salazar post is up. Man i like him more everytime i delve ;)

  4. Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

    This is now sortable and the initial columns are locked for convenience

  5. Can you explain the difference between the RBERA for Martin Perez (4.58) and his BERA (2.35) in the spreadsheet? Seems like a big discrepancy so maybe I’m missing something…?

    • Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

      Good catch….I remembered his discrepancy now that you brought it up and forgot to adjust it…lob & swstr changed his output quite a bit…but I believe that cell just for him was unlinked to one thing or another accidentally …I l l try to remember to fix that when I get back from ord

    • Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

      Carl – thanks again for catching this. It’s now fixed and will get updated when I output 25 more SP, but in the meantime:
      Perez’s new RBERA would be:4.61; 4.67 incorporating the park factor…his new ‘rb’ ERA is now 4.486.

  6. Bbboston on said:

    Dan,

    Love to get your thoughts on danny duffy!

    Seems like a possible sleeper to me. Has Ks and stuff, but appears to have not refined his pitching style. He throws too many walks, largely due to being overly jacked at the start of games and wants to K every batter instead of getting out of each BA expeditiously. In short he has an immature approach, to date. Seems to me he could be a guy who takes a quantum leap, if he comes under the reigns of a good pitching coach.

    • Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

      From a FIP perspective (accounts for HR,BB,HBP & K), he (and his K/BB ratio) looked okay in the minors because of a gorgeous strikeout rate but that’s not the case in the majors thus far (K% around 20+% and bad BB rates). While he had a sub 2.00 ERA last year, that came with a very lucky 0.00% HR/FB ratio and 85+% Left on Base rate…even a BABIP 30-40 pts. below his expected rate.

      TJS hasn’t treated him as well as others…Even pre-surgery i dont think he had great control and i believe post-surgery a loss of some control is a symptom.

      With Yordano Ventura & Kyle Zimmer impending, i wouldnt trust Duffy to keep his spot. Look up Kyle Zimmer the past 3 seasons…exactly what you want to see from a P prospect coming up the system: A>A+>AA..K rates of 22%>30%>36%…certainly some luck last year too, but that’s what happens with a 35+% K-rate in AA.

      Hope this helps…he could

      • Bbboston on said:

        Thanks for insight…. How about Ventura? I have both guys as possible keepers, along with Cobb, Salazar and nova.

        • Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

          I like Cobb & Salazar …not sure how much of sleepers they are anymore. As it relates to Ventura: I love that he has a 5 pitch repertoire which includes a 99 MPH heater.

          Go here and filter 50 pitch minimum:
          http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/

          Look whose #1 overall in 4-seamer velocity. Same w/ his sinker although an extremely small sample (25 pitches).

          I like him b/c he should also be a ground ball pitcher (even got close to 50% GB-rate in his first-go round).

          Year one i wouldnt be surprised by a 4.4 ERA and 1.4 WHIP but he should be great by ’15 and beyond.

          • Bbboston on said:

            Awesome stuff! Thanks!

          • Bbboston on said:

            Dan,

            Todd Redmond? The Little I’ve read about him, he’s got a fastball that’s very hard to pick up ala weaver. Also, Sierra and k/9 very strong, BUT weak hr/9 hampered success last year. Generally, he’s had good and bad years on that front, so he’s probably up for some positive regression after last year. In AL league he’s intriguing as a sleeper pick-up, but there is real question as to whether he can get a starting position this year… Any thoughts on this guy?

    • Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

      Joseph just found this on DUffy posted today!

      http://www.royalsreview.com/2013/12/31/5260206/danny-duffy-walks-too-many-batters

  7. Bbboston on said:

    Ps: he had better control in the minors, if memory serves. Tthe potential is there and his stuff is good enough that he can control with a meat cleaver, not a scalpel.

  8. Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

    BBBoston – can’t respond to your last note on Redmond above so i’ll do so here:
    He’s a relatively extreme Flyball (even though he’s induced above average IFFB% thus far) pitcher in Toronto and already showed a propensity to the HR so that’s the real issue. Solid K/BB rate (hence the solid enough SIERA) will keep him interesting. With Stroman & Aaron Sanchez impending (even Drabek?) i’m not sure he’s guaranteed anything. I can see him as a streaming option contingent on the park factors/opponent.

  9. Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

    Update on Wacha (all updates again once Hitters & pitchers are integrated)
    I had his IFFB% inputted incorrectly (1.1%) when it was supposed to be 11.1%. From an IP perspective, I also went with SIERA over BERA for reason you can find in Stephen Staude’s BERA post on FG. Therefore the overall projection didnt change much – he’s now at a 3.401 ERA (in the same exact positioning/tier as he is now).

  10. Bbboston on said:

    Dan,
    What do you think of eric Johnson?

  11. Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

    I acutally like EJohnson. I had him in a Dynasty League with Jimmy Nelson (Brewers) and talked to Brett Sayre about them both… He didnt think either had great ceilings. I think he even referenced Ejohnson could be turned into a reliever. He lucked into his 3.50 ERA last year but then again that was only like 25ish innings?

    I think he could be a 2.25 K/BB; 1.5 GB/FB guys…i think what made me pick him up originally was GB% and 3.00 K/BB ratio, but i guess the concern is as he progressed he dropped off everywhere (like 5.0 > 3.5 > 3.0 K/BB from A to AAA)at a (relatively) older age.

  12. Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

    *liked* not like

    • Bbboston on said:

      Thanks for the thoughts…. Rotoprofessor likes him, fwiw. Seems to me he’s a big body pitcher that will likely be an innings eater guy with a ceiling of Shields.

  13. I think that you are under-projecting Justin Masterson by the very wide margin. Had he not injured his oblique he would have finished second in the AL in innings and would have finished with around 230-235 Ks making him 3rd in the AL

    • Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

      Hi Mike,
      I do like Masterson. My projections are based on the 5×5 outcomes and not necessarily where i would draft one guys vs. another. I’m certainly drafting him before Colon and maybe even Weaver, but i’ll be honest…i like everyone else above him more. I have him as the 46th best SP…Last year he had a 7%! jump in K%! (backed up by his SwStr%) His BB% was around the same rate as 2012. I won’t point too much to his BABIP because he backed that up with a stellar Line Drive rate < 18%, but he did have the best LOB% of his career which depicts some luck too.

      The problem with good projection systems is that they all regress back to career/trend norms. If he somehow built on what he did last year, then you’re right, he probably winds up right after Sonny Gray on the list in the top 35.

    • Dan SchwartzDan Schwartz on said:

      Mike you motivated me to post on Masterson and I changed my mind (or had my liking for him exacerbated) when i looked at his pitch f/x outcomes: http://rotobanter.com/2014-fantasy-baseball-projections-justin-masterson/

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