About a whopping half hour ago, I posted this. Whatta trade: 2 declining all stars switching teams and opening plate appearances to 2 impending all stars: Jurickson Profar and Nick Castellanos whose should now be guaranteed a full time role in 2014.
Check out our Prospect Impact page (embedded excel file) or post. You can see what I projected for Profar and Castellanos prior to this trade in the first matrix/sheet and what is to be expected if they wound up closer to 160 games.
Here’s what I just said on Profar in the previous post:
I can see this in 150 games. He doesn’t have initial elevated BABIP potential so excluding luck, he’ll require strong discipline and a solid contact rate. Fortunately, he has both! Even though he had a .234 AVG last year, he had an excellent (first year) contact rate (86.6%) validated by a glorious SwStr% (5.5%). That was 47th and 40th respectively in all of baseball last year over 300 plate appearances. If you’re expecting a .300 BA though, that would require a .330+ BABIP, which he never even had in the minors.
And here is something close to Castellanos’ new projection:
At only 22 next year, his discipline and power (in Detroit) is a ways away, so his overall production will be based on the OBP in front of him and his contact rate and BABIP. If his solid linedrive approach and ability not to pop up the ball too much translates, he should have initial success.